LACK OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION MEASURES IN ZAMBIA COULD NEGATIVELY AFFECT GLOBAL WARMING MITIGATION EFFORTS AND STRATEGIES
By Alfonso Kasongo
A research conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFRI) has predicted that Zambia might have low copper production as a result of hydro power outrages due to low water levels triggered by climate change.
The research indicates that the poor copper production situation in Zambia will have the potential to adversely affect global climate change mitigation efforts and strategies.
And it further suggests that Zambia needs serous climate change adaptation if the southern African nation is to meaningfully contribute to the global green technology in as far as the electrical vehicles are concerned.
The research ,however, highlights that with the absence of adaptation measures,the adverse impact of climate change in Zambia has the potential to negatively affect global mitigation measures as production of copper which has crucial role in different green technologies will reduce.
It says climate change is projected to cause an increase in average temperatures in Zambia and a reduction in rainfall, particularly in the southern and western regions hence exacerbating hydro power outrages,a key factor in copper production.
"Zambia is significantly reliant on hydropower and is already experiencing severe power cuts due to drought. The risks in the sector are exacerbated by the location of key hydropower plants in the southern parts of the country and the projected drying up of main river basins."
"The electricity shortages have spillover effects on the rest of the economy, including the copper industry, Zambia’s key export."
"This has international implications, as Zambia is a top copper producer worldwide, and demand for copper is expected to increase significantly due to its crucial role in various green technologies. Thus, absent adaptation measures, the adverse impact of climate change in Zambia could affect global mitigation efforts and strategies," the report read.
The use of electrical vehicles has been viewed as one of climate change mitigation efforts and strategies to reduce carbon emissions so as to maintain the 1.5 degree Celsius global temperature threshold by 2030.
But according to scientists ,the world may cross the crucial 1.5C global warming threshold in seven years as fossil fuel carbon emissions continue to rise.
The IFRI report further states ..."the country (Zambia) experiences high rainfall variability, which climate change is expected to exacerbate, resulting in likely higher frequency and intensity of already reoccurring extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods."
It adds that the combined effect of the temperature and precipitation projections is predicted to cause a decrease in water availability at national level and to adversely affect the Zambezi, Kafue, and Luangwa River Basins. Overall, these trends will exacerbate existing vulnerabilities in southwestern Zambia, as the region is already prone to droughts (as well as floods in some parts).
On the other hand, the northern parts of the country are projected to experience a slight increase in rainfall and to be overall relatively positively affected by climate change.
The key sectors most likely to be significantly affected by climate change in Zambia include agriculture, road infrastructure, and energy. In agriculture, the key risk stemming from climate change is the projected lower maize yields, as this is the country’s staple crop.
Other crops are also expected to be adversely affected by higher temperatures, reduced rainfall, and increased occurrence of extreme events, particularly in southern and western Zambia.
That said, changing climate conditions could create new agricultural opportunities in the north.
Climate change is projected to negatively affect the livestock subsector, which will increase food security risks, particularly for subsistence farmers.
In road infrastructure, the projected higher occurrence of flooding, especially in Lusaka Province, could have a knock-on effect for the rest of the economy, particularly if it damages key international corridors passing through this region and/or affects domestic supply chains.
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